HF BROADCAST  RECEPTION CONDITIONS  EXPECTED DURING 2004

    Prepared by George Jacobs, MSEE, Consulting Broadcast Engineer

P.O.Box 12298, Silver Spring, Maryland,  USA 20908-0298

  e-mail:   e-mail: broadcaster@gjainc.com

web: www.gjainc.com  

Sunspot Cycle 23 Progress  

                        The present sunspot cycle, the 23rd to be recorded since the mid 18th Century, is in its seventh year of a statistical 11- year cycle. It began during October, 1996 with an official smoothed sunspot count of 9, rose to a peak of 121 during April, 2000. It began to decline as expected, but then surprised the experts by rising to a second peak of 115 during February 2002. It has resumed a slow decline since that date.  It is estimated that during 2003  Cycle 23 dropped from a sunspot count of 81 at the beginning of the year to acount in the low 50s at year’s end. It is expected to continue its decrease during 2004, with an estimated count in the low 50’s in January, dropping to a level in the mid 20’s by December. Solar experts generally continue to predict that the end of Cycle 23 should take place sometime during late 2006 or early 2007. Figure 1 records the progress of Cycle 23, and its predicted future.             

                        Sunspots are an indication of massive eruptions of ultraviolet radiation from the

Sun’s interior. This radiation is responsible for producing the ionosphere, a gaseous region high in the earth’s upper atmosphere. Somewhat like a mirror the ionosphere reflects high frequency radio waves, making it possible for HF broadcast stations to traverse large distances, cross frontiers, bridge oceans and link continents to reach a world wide audience.  The higher the sunspot count, the stronger the ionosphere, and the higher the frequency range available for HF broadcast stations. While the strength of an HF broadcast signal changes little throughout an

entire sunspot cycle,  the “window” of available HF spectrum diminishes as the cycle declines.  .  

                        Table 1 demonstrates this trend since Cycle 23 began its decline. Note that usage in the bands above 11 MHz dropped from 48% in 2000 to a planned 41% in 2004. Conversely, use of the bands below 10 MHZ increased from 52 to 59%. This data has been derived from the bi-annual coordinated schedules of the High Frequency Coordinating Conference (HFCC), and from comprehensive schedules published by  ILG Radio Software.

           

                        For a more in-depth and fascinating discussion of sunspots and the sunspot cycle see www.sunspotcycle.com

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TABLE-1    

Changes in  HF band usage with declining sunspot numbers 2000-2004

 % Band Usage 

2000    2001            2002            2003   2004

 

                                        2/3/4       2        3                 4               4          4                                 

                                        5/6          13      14        15        16        17

                                         7            14      15        15        16        16

                                         9            23       22       22         22       22

                                         11/12     17       17       17         17       18

                                         13          4         4         4           4          4

                                         15          14       13       13         12       12

                                         17/18      9         8         7           6         5

                                         21           4         4         3           3         2

                                         26           *         *         *           *         *                                              

 

*     Negligible Usage

 

TOTAL %

 

                                           2-10 MHz      52        54       56         58       59

                             11-26 MHz       48         46      44          42       41 

 

2004 Reception Conditions

 

                        The following is a general summary of reception conditions expected in

each high frequency broadcasting band during 2004.

 

            .

       HF Band    Meter     % of Overall         Reception Characteristics

        (MHZ)       Band      Usage                         

           

           26              11            Negligible        No propagation except occasional daytime. Perhaps                                                                              just RFI on 25820 kHz  to Africa,

                                   

           21              13               2.0             While propagation is waning with sunspot decline,                                                                     major world broadcasters likely to us during  day for long north-south paths, i.e. Europe to  southern Africa.                                                                        

          17/18         16                5.0                   Day: long distance, all seasons

                                    Night: occasional long distance, summer

 

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       15              19                12.0                      Day: mid and long- distance, all seasons                                                                                           Evening: mid and long-distance, except                                                                                                 winter                        

 

       13              22                4.0                        Day: mid and long-distance, all seasons

                                                                          Evening: mid and long distance, except                                                                                            winter

 

       11/12         25               18.0     Day: short and mid-distance all seasons  

                                                                         Night: mid and long-distance, except winter                                                                                         

       9               31                22.0                                 Day: short and mid-distance, all seasons

                                                      Night: mid and long-distance, except winter

 

       7               41                16.0                      Day: short and mid-distance, all seasons

                                                 Night: mid and long-distance, all seasons

 

     5/6              49                17.0                      Day: short and mid-distance, all seasons      

                                                 Night: mid and long-distance, all seasons

 

     2/3/4       120/90/60        4.0                         Day: short distance, all seasons

                                                                      Night: mid-distance, all seasons

 

            Short distance, up to approximately 1200 miles or 2000 km

                        Mid distance, approximately 1000 to 2400 miles, or 1600 to 4000 km

            Long distance, beyond 2400 miles or 4000 km      

            Day: sunrise to sunset

            Evening:  Up to two hours after sunset

            Night: sunset to sunrise

           

            For specific times when reception of HF stations is expected to be optimum on various bands during 2004, refer to  MOST SUITABLE FREQUENCIES 2004, which appears in the 2004 Edition of  “The World Radio TV Handbook”. For more detailed schedule information, including languages broadcast, subscribe to “The Shortwave Guide”. Both may be available at your local booksellers, or from WRTH Publications Limited, P.O.Box 290, Oxford OX2 7FT, UK.            .

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About the Author

            With 63 years of experience in the development of governmental and private international broadcasting systems, George Jacobs is a legend in the field of International Broadcasting. He has successfully combined innovative engineering talents and diplomacy with a fierce belief in the free flow of information. George has received numerous awards and recognition from his peers, as well as a Presidential Commission. He is co-author of the popular New Short Wave Propagation Handbook, and is the Dean of Contributing Editors to the World Radio TV Handbook. This is the 41st consecutive year that he has written for us.